Physical media will remain the dominant home media format through at least 2015, and is unlikely to be overtaken by digital distribution until 2021, concludes a study collating data from The Digital Entertainment Group, the Entertainment Merchants Association and the Consumer Electronics Association.

“The Future of DVD” study, commissioned by disc rental kiosk Redbox, and made available to Home Media Magazine, concludes that DVD/Blu-ray and digital content will likely continue to co-exist “as reduced costs, industry evolution and consumer access make way to a gradual transition to digital.”

“The portability and relatively inexpensive price point of the DVD help expand the lifespan of physical media, highlighted by Redbox’s $1-a-night rentals and Netflix’s unlimited DVD subscription plans that start at $9.99 per month,” the study continues. “Additionally, purchases of Blu-ray Discs and players jumped 86% in 2010, giving further evidence that physical media as the primary home video medium will take substantially longer to fade out than the demise of VHS a decade ago.”

The study notes that only 11% of the 90 million US home with HDTVs purchased between 2008 and 2011 are Internet-connected, pointing to the continuing importance of the disc.

“Adding together the impact of brick-and-mortar stores, kiosks and DVD subscription services, DVD rental demand will be about the same in 2014 as it was in 2008,” the reads the study quoted in to Home Media Magazine. “Physical rental is also projected to have three times the market share as digital rentals in 2014, indicating that the obsolescence of physical media within the home video market is not a near-term event.

While, last year, Americans spent some $2 billion on VOD and electronic sell-though (EST), it is dwarfed by the $18 billion they spent on DVD and Blu-ray discs.

Story filed 10.04.11