Global shipments of LCD TVs are now expected to grow at a slower pace in 2012 than 2011, according to the latest Quarterly Global TV Shipment and Forecast Report issued by NPD DisplaySearch. In addition, the overall TV market is expected to decline this year, even as segments such as emerging markets, large screen sizes, LED backlights, and 3D continue to grow.

In the latest forecast update, total TV shipments are forecast to fall 1.4% in 2012 to 245 million units, while LCD TV is expected to increase by 5% - compared to 7% growth in 2011 - reaching 216 million units. The decline in overall TV market demand and the slower growth in LCD TV shipments can be attributed to the slower rate of price erosion and cautious spending by consumers in Europe and Asia.

NPD expects to see average LCD TV selling prices decline only 4% in 2012 compared with 6% erosion in 2011 and 10% erosion in 2010. The growth is also slower this year as the transition to digital broadcasting, which accelerated purchases in major markets over the past few years has largely been completed. However, many emerging markets are still in the early stages of the switch to digital broadcasting.

Growth in emerging markets like China, Asia Pacific, Latin America, Eastern Europe, as well as the Middle East, and Africa, are expected to reach 8% year-on-year in 2012, matching the pace from 2011. Growth in these regions is expected to remain in the mid-single-digit range throughout the forecast period, offsetting the lack of strong growth in countries already well along the flat panel TV conversion path.

Indeed, LCD TVs remain the only growing TV technology, as OLED TVs are likely to launch late this year, and LCD continues to take market share from both CRT and plasma technologies. LCD TVs are expected to account for about 88% of total TV shipments worldwide in 2012, up from 82% the year before, and are projected to peak around 97% of overall unit demand in 2015. Plasma TV shipments on the other hand will fall to about 5%, declining 26% year-on-year as pricing becomes uncompetitive at key sizes.

Larger screen sizes continue to increase their share as affordability improves and early adopting flat panel TV consumers re-enter the market for an upgrade. The share of TV shipments at 50in and larger screen sizes is expected to jump from 6.5% in 2011 to 7.7% in 2012 and reach 10% by 2015. This will bring the average screen size to 35in for the first time in 2012, while the average size sold in North America is expected to exceed 40in in 2013.

While the outlook for 3D TV shipments has cooled somewhat, 74% year-on-year growth is still very impressive for a technology entering the third year of availability, and adoption in many regions remains robust, says NPD. Both Western Europe and China are expected to have almost 30% of total TV unit shipments as 3D-ready sets and after a very slow start in North America, adoption is expected to improve as the premiums fall, availability grows, and accessories like glasses decrease rapidly in cost.

Even so, the growth in 3D TVs is dependent on better 3D content availability, but a broader installed base of 3D sets will encourage content producers in a virtuous cycle, the analysts conclude.

Story filed 11.07.12