A new SNL Kagan study, The State of Home Video, forecasts a new wave of revenue growth in the retail home video business in the next decade, generated by the emergence of Blu-ray Disc as the next-generation physical media format.

While standard DVD still comprises 97.1% of the market, SNL Kagan projects that high-definition DVD will attain 59.7% market share in 2014, with $13.1 billion in revenue. By 2017, this figure is expected to soar to 73.8%, or $15.6 billion.

The SNL Kagan study points to 2010 as the start of the resurgence in retail revenue. Sales of Blu-ray players are expected to grow from $255.4 million in 2008 to $1.3 billion in 2010, reaching mass-market penetration and spiking to nearly $6.9 billion in 2013. "Blu-ray will be the driving force behind the video retail market throughout the next decade," said Wade Holden, analyst at SNL Kagan.

On the downside, added Holden: "The current economic climate, however, will slow the growth of this new format and likely keep it from reaching the heights that it may have in better times. VOD services will continue to improve in both technology and content over the next decade and begin to draw consumers away from Blu-ray and DVD by 2017."

Story filed 19.02.09