In view of the current economic turmoil, DisplaySearch has dramatically revised its TV market forecast for 2009, especially for the fastest-growing LCD TV category. Worldwide revenues are expected to fall year-on-year for the first time since LCD TV was launched in 2000.

As per DisplaySearch's Q4 08 Quarterly Global TV Shipment and Forecast Report, LCD TV revenues are forecast to fall 16% year-on-year to $64 billion in 2009, and total TV revenues is expected to fall 18% year-on-year to $88 billion.

DisplaySearch's total global TV forecast is 206.4 million units in 2008, up 3% year-on-year; 2009 shipments are forecast to be 205.3 million units, down 1% year-on-year – the first time there has been a drop in unit shipments, according to the firm.

On the LCD TV front, DisplaySearch expects this market segment to reach 102.2 million units in 2008, which would be 29% year-on-year growth; this is a reduction of 3.6 million units from the Q3 08 forecast for 2008. In 2009, the LCD TV market is forecast to reach 119.9 million units, for 17% year-on-year growth; this has been reduced by 11.5 million units from the Q3 08 forecast for 2009.

Unit growth in developed regions such as Japan, North America and Western Europe will be just 2% year-on-year, largely due to the impact of the economic crisis. The market research firm forecasts that LCD TV growth in emerging regions will be 45 percent year-on-year in 2009, lower than the 68 percent year-on-year growth in 2008. As CRT TV penetration in these emerging regions is 60-70 percent, the shift to FPD TV continues to be driven by price reductions.

As for Plasma TVs, the analysts expect PDP TV to grow 24% year-on-year to 13.9 million in 2008, largely unchanged from the Q3 08 forecast for 2008. This segment is forecast to grow 5% year-on-year in 2009, to 14.6 million units, falling by 5% from the Q3 08 forecast for 2009. This is primarily due to the rapid decline in prices of 32-inch LCD TVs. Another factor is the smaller number of PDP players in the market as a result of aggressive pricing from the top PDP TV brands.

DisplaySearch concludes that, in addition to unit reduction, the revenue decline in 2009 will affect the TV supply chain. Without revenue growth, top brands may aim to increase their market share to maintain revenue, causing challenges for lower-tier players. TV brands, as well as panel manufacturers and material suppliers, will need to aggressively increase 1,080p penetration (even for 32-inch and 37-inch sizes), and accelerate penetration of 120Hz and differentiated products such as Ultra Slim FPD TVs to maintain ASPs.

Story filed 21.12.08