A study commissioned by the International Chamber of Commerce/BASCAP to Paris-based TERA Consultants, determined that, in 2008, the European Union’s creative industries contributed 6.9%, or approximately €860 billion, to total European GDP, and represented 6.5% of the total workforce, or approximately 14 million workers.

The creative industries most impacted by piracy - film, TV series, recorded music and software - experienced retail revenue losses of €10 billion and losses of more than 185,000 jobs due to piracy, largely digital piracy. Assuming no significant policy changes, these industries could expect to see cumulative retail revenue losses of as much as €240 billion by 2015, resulting in 1.2 million jobs lost by 2015, the study forecasts.

Differing from previous research in this field, this study combines an expanded, comprehensive definition of “core creative industries ” and adds “ non-core creative industries” to form a more complete picture of Europe’s creative industries.

Traditionally, core creative industries have been identified as the manufacture and distribution of creative products, including film, television, music, publishing and
advertising. The more comprehensive definition used in this study includes relevant sectors such as software and online distribution of content.

The non-core creative industries distributes creative goods and services to consumers and produce products that are consumed interdependently with creative goods. These industries include activities such as the manufacture and sale of hardware (TVs, music-playing devices, etc.) and non-dedicated industries such as transport.

The core creative industries in the 27 countries of the European Union were
estimated to generate almost €560 billion in value added to GDP. This contribution was approximately 4.5% of total European GDP in the same year. It accounts for approximately 8.5 million jobs or 3.8% of total European workforce.

The value added by the total creative industries (core creative industries plus non-core creative industries) was about €860 billion in 2008, representing an estimated 6.9% share of GDP. Employment in the total creative was approximately 14 million, or 6.5% of the total EU workforce.

In coming years, growth in broadband penetration and the ongoing digitisation of creative industry products will accelerate, while physical piracy will represent an increasingly smaller share of overall piracy, says the study. “Without sustained and effective action, these trends will facilitate the continued expansion of digital piracy in Europe.”

This study provides two scenarios of estimated piracy-driven losses looking forward to 2015, both based on Cisco System’s Internet traffic forecasts and assuming that no measures are taken to address piracy.

In Scenario 1, the assumption is made that digital piracy activity will grow in line with file-sharing traffic, thus providing a conservative estimate of losses. From 2008 to 2015, file-sharing traffic in Europe is expected to grow at an annual rate in excess of 18%. If the losses from digital piracy were to grow at this rate, the result would be revenue losses in recorded music, film, TV series and software of about €32 billion in 2015. This will mean job losses in the EU will reach approximately 610,000 by 2015, up from slightly more than 185,000 in 2008.

In Scenario 2, the assumption is made that digital piracy growth will follow global consumer IP traffic trends in Europe (i.e., communications made via the Internet Protocol). This scenario includes online streaming activity as well as file-sharing, thus providing an upper limit of the impact of digital piracy.

From 2008 to 2015, consumer IP traffic is expected to grow at a rate in excess of 24%. If digital piracy in Europe were to mirror this rate of growth, the result would be losses in the recorded music, film, TV series and software industries of €56 billion in 2015, up from approximately €10 billion in 2008. This will mean job losses in the EU will reach 1.2 million by 2015, up from slightly more than 185 000 in 2008, Terra Consultants calculated.

Story filed 28.03.10