Europe's online source of news, data & analysis for professionals involved in packaged media and new delivery technologies
An industry executive speaks
In a series of Q&As, frontline practitioners in all facets of the packaged media and digital delivery industry share their views of things past, present and yet to come. It's the turn of CHRISTOPH SCHMIDT, MD of German authoring and production company DVDesign GmbH.
Where do you see your company's comparative advantage in this highly competitive market?
Since our foundation in 2001 we always offer professional services for reasonable prices. And today it's more important than in the early years of DVD. Concerning Blu-ray and 3D Blu-ray we started early in adopting the new standard and therefore we're able to offer professional services at reasonable prices for these challenging formats.
Amongst the range of services you offers, which one did grow in importance over the past 2 years, which one diminished, and which new service(s) will you be offering in the coming 2 years?
As we began early in experimenting with 3D and 3D Blu-ray, this is the service that did grow the most in the last 2 years. Our DVD production diminished a bit, but the last months we see again a rising demand in DVD services. DVD will also be around for the next 2 years, so our services for DVD, BD and 3D BD will be available in the near future.
There is a lot of alarmist talks about the rapid demise of packaged media in the face of online delivery. What is your view as to how long discs will be around?
Of course, online media is growing and still will grow, but the past showed that physical media always had an advantage in comparison to online media - high bitrate. And in my opinion that advantage will remain at least for the next 10 or 15 years. We're at the beginning of Ultra HD and no online service is able to offer the bandwidth to the homes that is required to deliver high quality images in Ultra HD; physical media can. Blu-ray will obviously be the media of choice also for Ultra HD. Whether we will still have spinning discs in the future or hologram cubes, I don't now, but there will be a physical medium for video and audio content.
Given the slower than expected take-up of 3D, do you thing 3D is here to stay or consumer interest in stereoscopy is temporary?
I think 3D is here to stay. Of course, 3D is not suitable for every kind of movie, so the consumers in the end will decide which genre 3D is interesting. And there it will stay for a long time.
Do you think the consumer take-up of 3D depends on the arrival of glasses-free autostereoscopic systems. If yes, how many years do you believe consumers will have to wait for a high-quality glasses-free system to rival the existing shutter glasses 3D systems?
Polarized glasses and Ultra HD is in my opinion the best solution at the moment and that can arrive in the next 3 to 5 years. The fact that the polarized system only has half HD resolution was one the biggest disadvantage in comparison to the shutter glass system. But if you have an Ultra HD display you can have full HD resolution for each eye in Full HD. The polarized glasses are light and easy to handle, so they don't really bother you. I doubt that in the near future there will we glassfree displays that really show the same stable quality than glassbased systems.
Cloud-based UltraViolet digital delivery has yet to make inroads in Europe. What needs to happen for consumers to embrace this digital service? Could UltraViolet be superseded by large retailers' own digital locker system like Tesco's Blinkbox?
The technology that will be the easiest to handle and that offers the most content will be the one that wins. Surely, there will be more than one service that will survive. Plus digital delivery and VoD have to become "one" for the consumer. If you use your favourite VoD platform, wouldn't it be great if the platform recognizes your DVD and BD collection and you can watch this content for free, wherever you are? At the moment there are too many services, too many information that the consumer has to handle. As a consumer I don't want to know how all the services works, I just want to use them easily.
Do you think UltraViolet has the potential to increase sales of BD discs (as the studios intended) or be the death knell of the packaged media?
Neither. It's nice to have UltraViolet, but it won't increase disc sales.
What do you see as the opportunities and pitfalls associated with Digital Copy on a disc?
At the moment where my favourite VoD platforms can deliver my content digitaIly, I really see a big advantage. Otherwise, I don't really see a big advantage.
How much of a revolution does smart TV represent, given that consumers are already comfortable using other screens (laptops, tablets and smartphones) to access Internet-delivered content?
In my opinion, Smart TV will smooth the way for Video-on-Demand (VoD) services. There is still a difference if you watch a full-length movie on a TV or on a tablet. So, Smart TVs will be very important for Internet-delivered content.
Ultra high definition 4K TVs are coming to the market. Is this a response to consumers demanding a better quality picture or a push by CE manufacturers who need to introduce higher-margin products?
There wasn't really a demand, but a consequence of a technological development that is always going on. You won't demand it until you have seen it. It's really overwhelming and will make its way.
Do you think 4K could be the shot of adrenalin Blu-ray needs given that a BD disc is best suited to bring ultra HD content to the home?
It will be one more advantage that BD offers in comparison to DVD and it will be one more reason to buy a BD rather than a DVD. But DVD won't die because of that. And Ultra HD will benefit from a standard already known.
The revival of vinyl points to a renewed interest for high-quality audio. Pure Audio Blu-ray (BD disc with uncompressed audio) is being launched. Do you think there is a sustainable market for it?
Why should its fate be different from that of DVD-Audio? Besides, vinyl is not a 'high-quality' audio medium, its just another way of enjoying music. In the era of MP3 the demand for high-quality audio like DVD-Audio, SACD or BD Audio will be very small.
How to you see Hollywood squaring the circle between the inexorable fall of high-revenue producing packaged media and the unstoppable rise of low-revenue generating online digital delivery?
The market is regulating itself, and so will Hollywood. I think production costs will fall in the next years and also the number of films that will be produced. Hopefully, the quality will rise.
If you let your imagination run wild, what system, format, application aimed at delivering content to the home would you like to see implemented in 10 years time?
3D Ultra HD on hologram cube along with digital delivery on my favourite VoD platform wherever I am, with glasses with integrated surround earphones that displays 3D when I'm on the move outside.
Contact: www.dvdesign.de....
On predicting the future
Predicting the future, let alone the future of packaged media, is a perilous exercise, and possibly counter-productive, as the exercise closes doors rather than keep them open, argues JEAN-LUC RENAUD, DVD Intelligence publisher. Consider that: Apple was left nearly for dead 15 years ago. Today, it became the world's most valuable technology company, topping Microsoft.
Le cinéma est une invention sans avenir (the cinema is an invention without any future) famously claimed the Lumière Brothers some 120 years ago. Well. The cinématographe grew into a big business, even bigger in times of economic crisis when people have little money to spend on any other business.
The advent of radio, then television, was to kill the cinema. With a plethora of digital TV channels, a huge DVD market, a wealth of online delivery options, a massive counterfeit underworld and illegal downloading on a large scale, cinema box office last year broke records!
The telephone was said to have no future when it came about. Today, 5 billion handsets are in use worldwide. People prioritize mobile phones over drinking water in many Third World countries.
No-one predicted the arrival of the iPod only one year before it broke loose in an unsuspecting market. Even fewer predicted it was going to revolutionise the economics of music distribution. Likewise, no-one saw the iPhone coming and even fewer forecast the birth of the developers' industry it ignited. And it changed the concept of mobile phone.
Make no mistake, the iPad will have a profound impact on the publishing world. It will bring new players, and smaller, perhaps more creative content creators.
And who predicted the revival of vinyl?
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